Gas prices…
Might be worth waiting.
Crude has turned down for the last couple of days. Pump prices may follow.
Updated Nov 3
Week of Mon, Nov 2 · Source: EIA
Behind the forecast
Crude oil is the biggest single ingredient in the price of gasoline. When crude gets more expensive, refiners pay more, and those costs work their way down to the pump. The same is true in reverse, though prices tend to fall more slowly than they rise.
Because that pass-through takes a week or two, crude gives us a head start. We smooth out daily crude prices with a 7-day weighted average (7d WMA), then watch for turning points where the trend changes direction. A recent turn up can mean pump prices will follow soon.
To make the call, we only look at the last 3 days of the 7d WMA. Whether it went up or down on each of those days, and in what order, sets the forecast. Three in a row means the trend is still going; a fresh flip points to a change.
FAQ
Crude oil is the biggest input to the cost of gasoline, so retail prices tend to follow it. They usually trail crude by about 1-2 weeks, so crude's recent trend can be an early signal.
That said, this forecast keeps it simple and relies only on crude prices to make its predictions. That doesn't mean crude is the only thing that moves gas prices.
Once a day, from recent EIA crude oil prices. The U.S. average gas prices are EIA's weekly figures, each dated a Monday.
Check the dates shown. Prices aren't real-time and can be several days old, and a notice may appear if price data looks later than usual. The forecast is as of the newest crude oil price shown, not today's date.
It's a directional signal, not a guarantee. It looks ahead about 1-2 weeks and is based on the trend in crude oil, nothing else. It can miss sudden shocks like hurricanes, refinery outages, or geopolitical events, and it can't see local station pricing. It has only been checked against about a year of past prices, and past results don't guarantee future ones.
We show U.S. averages. Your station can be higher or lower because of your state's taxes, regional supply, brand, nearby competition, and its own pricing decisions. The trend matters more than the exact number.
Each one is a general read on which way pump prices may be heading, with a short suggestion for what to do.
- Might be good to fill up now, unless you can wait until prices drop.Rising
- Might be a good idea to fill up soon.Might rise
- Fill up now or later — either way.Holding steady
- Might be worth waiting.Might fall
- Fill up now or later — prices are on your side.Falling
This is a general read on a national trend, the same for everyone. It isn't advice for your situation, and it can be wrong. See the Disclaimer.