Purpose
Purpose
Fill up now or wait? Gas usually follows crude oil, so crude's trend is your head start. This is your signal.
Like a weather forecast, for gas. Free.
Why I made this
Gas prices move fast, and the question is always the same: fill up now, or wait?
Pump prices tend to follow crude oil, so the trend in crude can be an early signal. Do I Get Gas? turns that trend into a clear call, the way a weather forecast turns data into "bring an umbrella." One quick look, one simple answer, and a short explanation when you want it.
No charts to hunt down, no lines to draw. Free and simple.
Do I Get Gas? is a product of Ka Technology LLC.
How it works
The method, step by step. Settings may change as we tune it.
- 01
Inputs
The daily WTI crude oil price ($/bbl), one close per trading day. Markets close on weekends and holidays, so those days are skipped, not filled in.
The weekly U.S. average gas prices for regular, midgrade and premium, which usually come out on Mondays. They're shown for context only and never feed the forecast.
Two weeks of data: crude on trading days, gas once a week - 02
Smoothing: 7-day WMA
Daily crude prices are noisy. We average the last 7 trading days, weighting recent days more, so the line reacts quickly without jumping on one odd day.
How much each of the last 7 trading days counts - 03
Direction: 3-day vote
We check whether the WMA went up (+) or down (−) on each of the last 3 trading days. The pattern of those three moves, oldest to newest, is the signal.
Each box is one day's move in the WMA - 04
Turning points
A turning point is the day the WMA changes direction. In the 3-day pattern it shows up as a flip: − + + means crude just turned up.
A turn up, marked on the chart in red - 05
From signal to forecast
Each 3-day pattern, read oldest to newest, maps to one forecast. Three in a row means rising or falling; a turn that holds for two days means "might"; anything less settled, including a turn on the latest day, means holding steady.
- Rising+ + +
- Might rise− + +
- Holding steady+ − +or− + −or+ + −or− − +
- Might fall+ − −
- Falling− − −
- 06
Limits
Pump prices usually trail crude by 1-2 weeks, and that lag is what makes a forecast possible. The method has only been checked against about a year of past prices and isn't proven. It's simply my own way of gauging whether gas prices will go up. Refinery outages, storms, taxes, seasonal fuel blends and more can all break the pattern.
Support
The site is free to use, but not to run. Help keep it running and ad-free. If the forecast saved you a few bucks at the pump, maybe you can help fill my tank. Always appreciated, never expected.
By donating, you agree to our Terms of Use. Donations are voluntary and go to Ka Technology LLC, which may use them for any purpose. You must be 18 or older to donate. This isn't a charity, so donations aren't tax-deductible, and they're non-refundable unless there's a payment mistake.